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Blacktown City vs Manly United — New South Wales NPL 2026

Blacktown City
Blacktown City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Manly United
Manly United
6/12/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 19Landen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Blacktown City52%
×Draw23%
Manly United25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blacktown City
1.78
Manly United
1.15

Blacktown City creates 55% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 92 away

creates per match

Blacktown City
1.92
Manly United
1.16

allows per match

Blacktown City
1.15
Manly United
1.64

finishing

Blacktown City+0.00on par
Manly United+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacktown City ↓

Manly United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Blacktown City or draw
75%
Blacktown City or Manly United
77%
Draw or Manly United
48%

Winning margin

Blacktown City wins by 2+
29%
Manly United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Blacktown City 1+ goals
83%
Blacktown City 2+ goals
53%
Blacktown City 3+ goals
26%
Manly United 1+ goals
68%
Manly United 2+ goals
32%
Manly United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Blacktown City (draw refunded)
68%
Manly United (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacktown City at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.15 · 96 matches

Manly United away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacktown City attack 1.92 + Manly United defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.78

Manly United attack 1.16 + Blacktown City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Blacktown City scores more
52%
level
23%
Manly United scores more
25%

Blacktown City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Blacktown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Blacktown City 2–0 Manly United

Blacktown City beat Manly United 2-0 in New South Wales NPL on June 12, 2024.

The match was played at Landen Stadium in Blacktown.