Blacks Power 1–0 Wakiso Giants: Result & Stats

Blacks Power

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wakiso Giants

3/22/2023

Premier League · Round 19Akii Bua Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Blacks Power40%

×Draw30%

Wakiso Giants30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blacks PowerExpected goals in this matchWakiso Giants

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.95

Blacks Power

1.14

Wakiso Giants

0.95

Blacks Power creates 20% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 84 away

0.93

creates per match

0.76

1.14

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Blacks Power

0.93

Wakiso Giants

0.76

allows per match

Blacks Power

1.14

Wakiso Giants

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blacks Power+0.00on par

Wakiso Giants+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacks Power ↓

Wakiso Giants →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Blacks Power or draw

70%

Blacks Power or Wakiso Giants

70%

Draw or Wakiso Giants

60%

Winning margin

Blacks Power wins by 2+

17%

Wakiso Giants wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Blacks Power 1+ goals

68%

Blacks Power 2+ goals

32%

Blacks Power 3+ goals

11%

Wakiso Giants 1+ goals

61%

Wakiso Giants 2+ goals

25%

Wakiso Giants 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Blacks Power (draw refunded)

57%

Wakiso Giants (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacks Power at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Wakiso Giants away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.35 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacks Power attack 0.93 + Wakiso Giants defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Wakiso Giants attack 0.76 + Blacks Power defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Blacks Power scores more

40%

level

30%

Wakiso Giants scores more

30%

Blacks Power at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Blacks Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff