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Blacks Power vs Gaddafi — Premier League 2019

Blacks Power
Blacks Power
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Gaddafi
Gaddafi
M. Siwu 56', 3'
D. Okwir 10' (pen)
F. Mulimi 43', 7'
5/16/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Akii Bua Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Blacks Power48%
×Draw27%
Gaddafi25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blacks Power
1.38
Gaddafi
0.90

Blacks Power creates 53% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 44 away

creates per match

Blacks Power
0.93
Gaddafi
0.66

allows per match

Blacks Power
1.14
Gaddafi
1.82

finishing

Blacks Power+0.00on par
Gaddafi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacks Power ↓

Gaddafi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Blacks Power or draw
75%
Blacks Power or Gaddafi
73%
Draw or Gaddafi
52%

Winning margin

Blacks Power wins by 2+
23%
Gaddafi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Blacks Power 1+ goals
75%
Blacks Power 2+ goals
40%
Blacks Power 3+ goals
16%
Gaddafi 1+ goals
59%
Gaddafi 2+ goals
23%
Gaddafi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Blacks Power (draw refunded)
66%
Gaddafi (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacks Power at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Gaddafi away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacks Power attack 0.93 + Gaddafi defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.38

Gaddafi attack 0.66 + Blacks Power defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Blacks Power scores more
48%
level
27%
Gaddafi scores more
25%

Blacks Power at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Blacks Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
M. Siwu
7'
F. Mulimi
10'
D. OkwirPenalty
43'
J. Male← J. Male
43'
F. Mulimi
46'
R. Eseru← R. Eseru
56'
M. Siwu
59'
59'
59'
60'
I. Tumusiime← I. Tumusiime
64'
64'
B. Magumba

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Blacks Power 3–2 Gaddafi

Blacks Power beat Gaddafi 3-2 in Premier League on May 16, 2023.

Goals: M. Siwu (3', 56'), F. Mulimi (7', 43'), D. Okwir (10' pen).

The match was played at Akii Bua Stadium in Lira.