Blacks Power 0–2 Busoga United: Result & Stats

Blacks Power

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Busoga United

2/21/2023

Premier League · Round 17Akii Bua Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Blacks Power45%

×Draw28%

Busoga United27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blacks PowerExpected goals in this matchBusoga United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.99

Blacks Power

1.35

Busoga United

0.99

Blacks Power creates 36% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 69 away

0.93

creates per match

0.84

1.14

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Blacks Power

0.93

Busoga United

0.84

allows per match

Blacks Power

1.14

Busoga United

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blacks Power+0.00on par

Busoga United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacks Power ↓

Busoga United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Blacks Power or draw

73%

Blacks Power or Busoga United

72%

Draw or Busoga United

55%

Winning margin

Blacks Power wins by 2+

21%

Busoga United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Blacks Power 1+ goals

74%

Blacks Power 2+ goals

39%

Blacks Power 3+ goals

15%

Busoga United 1+ goals

63%

Busoga United 2+ goals

26%

Busoga United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Blacks Power (draw refunded)

62%

Busoga United (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacks Power at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Busoga United away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.78 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacks Power attack 0.93 + Busoga United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.35

Busoga United attack 0.84 + Blacks Power defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blacks Power scores more

45%

level

28%

Busoga United scores more

27%

Blacks Power at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Blacks Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff