Blackpool 0–2 West Brom: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

West Brom

T. Gardner-Hickman 60'

B. Thomas-Asante 18'

4/18/2023

Championship · Round 43Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Blackpool37%

×Draw27%

West Brom36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.23

Blackpool

1.25

West Brom

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 157 away

1.23

creates per match

1.18

1.27

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Blackpool

1.23

West Brom

1.18

allows per match

Blackpool

1.27

West Brom

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

64%

Blackpool or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

63%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

16%

West Brom wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

71%

Blackpool 2+ goals

36%

Blackpool 3+ goals

13%

West Brom 1+ goals

71%

West Brom 2+ goals

35%

West Brom 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

51%

West Brom (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.23 + West Brom defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

West Brom attack 1.18 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Blackpool scores more

37%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

36%

Blackpool at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Townsend

West Brom · D

7.9

Match Events

18'

B. Thomas-Asante↳ C. Townsend

32'

Nathaniel Chalobah

40'

T. Gardner-Hickman← N. Chalobah

46'

S. Carey← K. Anderson

55'

Darnell Furlong

60'

T. Gardner-Hickman↳ J. Swift

63'

Lewis Fiorini

64'

J. Bowler← M. Rogers

71'

T. Rogić← J. Swift

75'

B. Holmes← L. Fiorini

79'

M. Albrighton← K. Ahearne-Grant

80'

Marc Albrighton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolWest

Overview

58%Possession42%

13Total Shots10

5Corners5

5Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots10

3On Target3

7Off Target5

3Blocked2

8Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

526Total Passes389

415Accurate Passes288

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3