Blackpool 3–1 Watford: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Watford

J. Yates 85', 81'

G. Madine 10'

I. Louza 29'

10/8/2022

Championship · Round 14Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Blackpool40%

×Draw27%

Watford33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.17

Blackpool

1.31

Watford

1.17

Blackpool creates 12% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 122 away

1.23

creates per match

1.06

1.27

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Blackpool

1.23

Watford

1.06

allows per match

Blackpool

1.27

Watford

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

67%

Blackpool or Watford

73%

Draw or Watford

60%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

18%

Watford wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

73%

Blackpool 2+ goals

38%

Blackpool 3+ goals

14%

Watford 1+ goals

69%

Watford 2+ goals

33%

Watford 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

55%

Watford (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

Watford away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.40 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.23 + Watford defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

Watford attack 1.06 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Blackpool scores more

40%

level

27%

Watford scores more

33%

Blackpool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Yates

Blackpool · F

8.7

Match Events

10'

G. Madine↳ C. Connolly

29'

I. Louza

46'

L. Bridcutt← S. Carey

46'

Y. Asprilla← K. Sema

51'

Dominic Thompson

59'

K. Davis← V. Bayo

66'

S. Lavery← T. Corbeanu

74'

C. Hamilton← G. Madine

78'

T. Dele-Bashiru← E. Kayembe

78'

F. Sierralta← D. Gosling

81'

J. Yates↳ C. Hamilton

85'

J. Yates↳ S. Lavery

87'

J. Morris← F. Sierralta

88'

Imrân Louza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolWatford

Overview

26%Possession74%

18Total Shots10

5Corners7

10Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots10

9On Target5

4Off Target1

5Blocked4

12Inside Box4

6Outside Box6

Passing

26%Possession74%

223Total Passes638

139Accurate Passes539

62%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Championship: Blackpool 3–1 Watford

Blackpool beat Watford 3-1 in Championship on October 8, 2022.

Goals: G. Madine (10'), I. Louza (29'), J. Yates (81', 85').

Watford controlled possession (74%) and registered 10 shots to 18.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool, Lancashire.

Blackpool vs Watford — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Blackpool 3–1 Watford