Blackpool 0–3 Stockport County: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Stockport County

I. Olaofe 90+4'

J. Fevrier 84'

L. Barry 67'

8/17/2024

League One · Round 2Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Blackpool40%

×Draw24%

Stockport County36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchStockport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.50

Blackpool

1.57

Stockport County

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.49

creates per match

1.37

1.63

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Blackpool

1.49

Stockport County

1.37

allows per match

Blackpool

1.63

Stockport County

1.66

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less

Stockport County-0.19scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Stockport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

64%

Blackpool or Stockport County

76%

Draw or Stockport County

60%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

19%

Stockport County wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

79%

Blackpool 2+ goals

46%

Blackpool 3+ goals

21%

Stockport County 1+ goals

78%

Stockport County 2+ goals

44%

Stockport County 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

52%

Stockport County (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + Stockport County defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.57

Stockport County attack 1.37 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Blackpool scores more

40%

level

24%

Stockport County scores more

36%

Blackpool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

I. Touray

Stockport County · D

7.6

Match Events

44'

Lee Evans

60'

Will Collar

62'

E. Embleton← R. Finnigan

67'

L. Barry↳ I. Touray

70'

J. Fevrier← L. Barry

71'

J. Rhodes← K. Joseph

71'

C. Hamilton← R. Apter

71'

D. Ballard← A. Fletcher

82'

James Husband

82'

T. Onyango← J. Diamond

83'

Matthew Pennington

84'

J. Fevrier↳ L. Bate

85'

Z. Ashworth← H. Coulson

87'

I. Olaofe← J. Mingi

88'

O. Bailey← W. Collar

90+4'

I. Olaofe↳ K. Wootton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolStockport

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots11

3Corners2

16Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots11

0On Target5

3Off Target3

8Blocked3

5Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

415Total Passes492

309Accurate Passes377

74%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1