Blackpool 3–0 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stevenage

C. Hamilton 78'

O. Dale 60'

J. Rhodes 38'

10/14/2023

League One · Round 13Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Blackpool43%

×Draw25%

Stevenage32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.32

Blackpool

1.55

Stevenage

1.32

Blackpool creates 17% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.49

creates per match

1.01

1.63

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Blackpool

1.49

Stevenage

1.01

allows per match

Blackpool

1.63

Stevenage

1.61

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less

Stevenage+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

68%

Blackpool or Stevenage

75%

Draw or Stevenage

57%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

21%

Stevenage wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

79%

Blackpool 2+ goals

46%

Blackpool 3+ goals

20%

Stevenage 1+ goals

73%

Stevenage 2+ goals

38%

Stevenage 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

57%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Stevenage away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + Stevenage defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.55

Stevenage attack 1.01 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Blackpool scores more

43%

level

25%

Stevenage scores more

32%

Blackpool at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

J. Rhodes

Blackpool · F

8.2

Match Events

7'

Aaron Pressley

13'

Ben Thompson

25'

F. Burns← N. Thompson

38'

J. Rhodes↳ O. Norburn

43'

Sonny Carey

46'

K. Smith← A. Pressley

53'

Terence Vancooten

58'

R. Hannam← B. Thompson

58'

K. Hemmings← L. Thompson

60'

O. Dale↳ S. Carey

73'

S. Lavery← K. Kouassi

73'

A. Morgan← S. Carey

78'

C. Hamilton↳ J. Rhodes

85'

E. List← J. Reid

87'

J. Weir← K. Dougall

87'

C. Connolly← O. Dale

89'

K. Dembélé← J. Rhodes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolStevenage

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots7

6Corners7

9Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots7

3On Target3

5Off Target0

6Blocked4

10Inside Box2

4Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

463Total Passes392

345Accurate Passes267

75%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls7

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides5