Blackpool 1–2 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rotherham

A. Gnanduillet 90+9' (pen)

C. Robertson 87'

M. Smith 51'

10/12/2019

League One · Round 13Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Blackpool41%

×Draw26%

Rotherham34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.29

Blackpool

1.45

Rotherham

1.29

Blackpool creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.49

creates per match

0.96

1.63

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Blackpool

1.49

Rotherham

0.96

allows per match

Blackpool

1.63

Rotherham

1.41

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less

Rotherham+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

66%

Blackpool or Rotherham

74%

Draw or Rotherham

59%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

20%

Rotherham wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

77%

Blackpool 2+ goals

42%

Blackpool 3+ goals

18%

Rotherham 1+ goals

72%

Rotherham 2+ goals

37%

Rotherham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

55%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + Rotherham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.45

Rotherham attack 0.96 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Blackpool scores more

41%

level

26%

Rotherham scores more

34%

Blackpool at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

C. Robertson

Rotherham · D

7.9

Match Events

10'

Sean Scannell

49'

Liam Feeney

51'

M. Smith↳ C. Robertson

58'

Matthew Olosunde

58'

C. Ogbene← J. Hastie

62'

N. Delfouneso← J. Spearing

63'

T. Clarke← M. Crooks

77'

R. Hardie← S. Scannell

82'

B. Jones← M. Olosunde

85'

Callum Anthony Guy

85'

C. MacDonald← J. Husband

87'

C. Robertson↳ J. Lindsay

90'

90'

90'

90'

90'

90+9'

A. GnanduilletPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolRotherham

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots6

9Corners3

18Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots6

4On Target3

4Off Target1

4Blocked2

9Inside Box4

3Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

318Total Passes252

210Accurate Passes124

66%Pass Accuracy49%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls15

5Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0