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Blackpool vs QPR — Championship 2018

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
QPR
QPR
G. Madine 54' (pen)
C. Willock 26'
11/6/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Blackpool41%
×Draw27%
QPR32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.32
QPR
1.13

Blackpool creates 17% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 185 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.23
QPR
0.98

allows per match

Blackpool
1.27
QPR
1.41

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par
QPR+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
68%
Blackpool or QPR
73%
Draw or QPR
59%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
19%
QPR wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
73%
Blackpool 2+ goals
38%
Blackpool 3+ goals
15%
QPR 1+ goals
68%
QPR 2+ goals
31%
QPR 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
56%
QPR (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

QPR away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.41 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.23 + QPR defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

QPR attack 0.98 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Blackpool scores more
41%
level
27%
QPR scores more
32%

Blackpool at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
J. Lawrence-GabrielBlackpoolBlackpool · D
7.3

Match Events

26'
C. Willock↳ I. Chair
33'
Moses Odubajo
36'
Gary Madine
46'
O. Kakay← M. Odubajo
50'
Albert Adomah
53'
Seny Dieng
54'
G. MadinePenalty
60'
Keshi Anderson
73'
S. Carey← O. Dale
73'
D. Ball← C. Willock
73'
C. Austin← L. Amos
79'
D. Mitchell← J. Bowler
82'
Dominic Ball
90+5'
Jimmy Dunne

Possession

52%Blackpool

Shots

10Blackpool

Pass accuracy

50%Blackpool

Statistics

BlackpoolQPR
Overview
52%Possession48%
10Total Shots5
8Corners4
12Fouls16
Shots
10Total Shots5
1On Target1
6Off Target2
3Blocked2
6Inside Box3
4Outside Box2
Passing
52%Possession48%
430Total Passes396
315Accurate Passes287
73%Pass Accuracy72%
Discipline
12Fouls16
2Yellow Cards5
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Blackpool vs QPR

Blackpool and QPR drew 1-1 in Championship on November 6, 2021.

Goals: C. Willock (26'), G. Madine (54' pen).

Blackpool controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 5.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool, Lancashire.