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Blackpool vs Preston — Championship 2018

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Preston
Preston
C. Hamilton 90+5'
J. Yates 81', 30'
C. Patino 68'
C. Connolly 89' (OG)
B. Whiteman 38' (pen)
10/22/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Blackpool40%
×Draw27%
Preston33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.30
Preston
1.15

Blackpool creates 13% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 183 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.23
Preston
1.03

allows per match

Blackpool
1.27
Preston
1.38

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par
Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
67%
Blackpool or Preston
73%
Draw or Preston
60%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
18%
Preston wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
73%
Blackpool 2+ goals
37%
Blackpool 3+ goals
14%
Preston 1+ goals
68%
Preston 2+ goals
32%
Preston 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
55%
Preston (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

Preston away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.38 · 183 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.23 + Preston defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Preston attack 1.03 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Blackpool scores more
40%
level
27%
Preston scores more
33%

Blackpool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. YatesBlackpoolBlackpool · F
9.5

Match Events

27'
Álvaro Fernandez
30'
S. Carey← L. Bridcutt
30'
J. Yates↳ G. Madine
38'
B. WhitemanPenalty
45+1'
Charlie Patino
45'
Jordan Storey
64'
Bambo Diaby← G. Cunningham
68'
C. Patino↳ S. Carey
76'
R. Brady← B. Woodburn
76'
S. Maguire← R. Ledson
80'
R. Williams← J. Thorniley
81'
J. Yates↳ C. Patino
83'
A. Browne← A. McCann
83'
C. Evans← J. Storey
86'
D. Thompson← J. Husband
89'
C. ConnollyOwn goal
90+5'
C. Hamilton↳ J. Yates

Possession

42%Blackpool

Shots

11Blackpool

Pass accuracy

46%Blackpool

Statistics

BlackpoolPreston
Overview
42%Possession58%
11Total Shots18
1Corners6
11Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots18
5On Target6
6Off Target4
0Blocked8
6Inside Box9
5Outside Box9
Passing
42%Possession58%
263Total Passes356
156Accurate Passes243
59%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Blackpool vs Preston

Blackpool beat Preston 4-2 in Championship on October 22, 2022.

Goals: J. Yates (30', 81'), B. Whiteman (38' pen), C. Patino (68'), C. Connolly (89' o.g.), C. Hamilton (90+5').

Preston controlled possession (58%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool, Lancashire.