Blackpool 0–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Peterborough

M. Maddison 43'

4/13/2019

League One · Round 42Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Blackpool44%

×Draw23%

Peterborough33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.44

Blackpool

1.71

Peterborough

1.44

Blackpool creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.49

creates per match

1.24

1.63

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Blackpool

1.49

Peterborough

1.24

allows per match

Blackpool

1.63

Peterborough

1.92

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less

Peterborough-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

67%

Blackpool or Peterborough

77%

Draw or Peterborough

56%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

23%

Peterborough wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

82%

Blackpool 2+ goals

51%

Blackpool 3+ goals

24%

Peterborough 1+ goals

76%

Peterborough 2+ goals

42%

Peterborough 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

58%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.92 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + Peterborough defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.71

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blackpool scores more

44%

level

23%

Peterborough scores more

33%

Blackpool at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

M. Maddison↳ L. Tomlin

57'

C. Long← L. Feeney

58'

D. Daniels← N. Delfouneso

70'

J. Ward← L. Tomlin

79'

G. Cooper← S. Dembele

89'

J. Knight← L. Reed

90'

Curtis Tilt

Blackpool

Peterborough

1

5

18

2

16

4

11

▼

Reed

10

▼

Dembele

29

A

▼

Tomlin

17

Toney

21

⚽

37

20

27

16

8

24

▼

6

17

23

7

▼

Delfounes

21

Gnanduill

Manager: T. McPhillips

57'▲C. Long←▼L. Feeney

58'▲D. Daniels←▼N. Delfouneso

Blackpool substitutes

31Long2Daniels5Evans12Nottingham13Boney14Pritchard15Thompson

Manager: D. Ferguson

70'▲J. Ward←▼L. Tomlin

79'▲G. Cooper←▼S. Dembele

89'▲J. Knight←▼L. Reed

Peterborough substitutes

15Ward19Cooper3Knight9Godden14Cooke25O'Malley26Stevens