Blackpool 1–4 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Nottingham Forest

C. Connolly 89'

S. Surridge 82'

B. Johnson 36', 30'

P. Zinckernagel 11'

4/2/2022

Championship · Round 40Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Blackpool34%

×Draw28%

Nottingham Forest38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.21

Blackpool

1.13

Nottingham Forest

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 95 away

1.23

creates per match

1.16

1.27

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Blackpool

1.23

Nottingham Forest

1.16

allows per match

Blackpool

1.27

Nottingham Forest

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

62%

Blackpool or Nottingham Forest

72%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

66%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

14%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

68%

Blackpool 2+ goals

31%

Blackpool 3+ goals

11%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

70%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

34%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

47%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.23 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Blackpool scores more

34%

level

28%

Nottingham Forest scores more

38%

Nottingham Forest at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

B. Johnson

Nottingham Forest · F

9.2

Match Events

11'

P. Zinckernagel↳ B. Johnson

30'

B. Johnson

36'

B. Johnson

55'

Kevin Stewart

60'

C. Connolly← K. Stewart

63'

K. Anderson← C. Hamilton

66'

L. Grabban← B. Johnson

66'

S. Surridge← K. Davis

74'

J. Lolley← P. Zinckernagel

75'

S. Lavery← J. Yates

82'

S. Surridge↳ S. McKenna

88'

Joe Lolley

89'

C. Connolly↳ J. Thorniley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolNottingham

Overview

50%Possession50%

18Total Shots17

8Corners4

9Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots17

5On Target7

5Off Target5

8Blocked5

14Inside Box12

4Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

360Total Passes389

255Accurate Passes283

71%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3