Blackpool 1–0 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Milton Keynes Dons

S. Kaikai 66'

10/24/2020

League One · Round 8Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Blackpool42%

×Draw26%

Milton Keynes Dons32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.23

Blackpool

1.46

Milton Keynes Dons

1.23

Blackpool creates 19% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 79 away

1.56

creates per match

1.37

1.08

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Blackpool

1.56

Milton Keynes Dons

1.37

allows per match

Blackpool

1.08

Milton Keynes Dons

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

68%

Blackpool or Milton Keynes Dons

74%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

58%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

20%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

77%

Blackpool 2+ goals

43%

Blackpool 3+ goals

18%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

71%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

35%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

57%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.08 · 96 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.56 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.46

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.37 + Blackpool defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Blackpool scores more

42%

level

26%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

32%

Blackpool at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

D. Ballard

Blackpool · D

7.6

Match Events

15'

David Kasumu

47'

Sullay Kaikai

54'

B. Gladwin← L. Thompson

62'

C. Jerome← C. Morris

62'

S. Walker← J. Mason

66'

S. Kaikai↳ C. Hamilton

69'

O. Šarkić← B. Woodburn

80'

87'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolMilton

Overview

39%Possession61%

4Total Shots7

3Corners3

25Fouls14

Shots

4Total Shots7

2On Target1

1Off Target2

1Blocked4

3Inside Box4

1Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

314Total Passes463

208Accurate Passes348

66%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

25Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2