Blackpool 2–1 Ipswich: Result & Stats | League One

Blackpool

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ipswich

J. Nuttall 90+3'

K. Dewsbury-Hall 26'

F. Sears 54'

2/29/2020

League One · Round 36Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Blackpool39%

×Draw27%

Ipswich34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.18

Blackpool

1.27

Ipswich

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 84 away

1.53

creates per match

1.27

1.09

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Blackpool

1.53

Ipswich

1.27

allows per match

Blackpool

1.09

Ipswich

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

66%

Blackpool or Ipswich

73%

Draw or Ipswich

61%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

17%

Ipswich wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

72%

Blackpool 2+ goals

36%

Blackpool 3+ goals

14%

Ipswich 1+ goals

69%

Ipswich 2+ goals

33%

Ipswich 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

53%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 133 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.53 + Ipswich defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ipswich attack 1.27 + Blackpool defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Blackpool scores more

39%

level

27%

Ipswich scores more

34%

Blackpool at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

48

W. Keane

Ipswich · F

8.2

Match Events

26'

54'

59'

60'

60'

67'

81'

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

84'

T. Simpson← W. Keane

86'

Calum MacDonald

90'

Joe Nuttall

90+3'

J. Nuttall↳ L. Feeney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolIpswich

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots15

10Corners4

11Fouls8

Shots

7Total Shots15

4On Target7

2Off Target6

1Blocked2

5Inside Box12

2Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

328Total Passes450

200Accurate Passes315

61%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1