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Blackpool vs Fleetwood Town — League One 2018

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
4/9/2024League OneLeague One · Round 40Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Blackpool45%
×Draw26%
Fleetwood Town29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.47
Fleetwood Town
1.14

Blackpool creates 29% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 134 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.51
Fleetwood Town
1.18

allows per match

Blackpool
1.10
Fleetwood Town
1.43

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par
Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
71%
Blackpool or Fleetwood Town
74%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
55%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
22%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
77%
Blackpool 2+ goals
43%
Blackpool 3+ goals
18%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
68%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
32%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
60%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.51 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.47

Fleetwood Town attack 1.18 + Blackpool defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blackpool scores more
45%
level
26%
Fleetwood Town scores more
29%

Blackpool at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blackpool vs Fleetwood Town

Blackpool beat Fleetwood Town 1-0 in League One on April 9, 2024.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool, Lancashire.