Blackpool 2–0 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Exeter City

1/13/2024

League One · Round 28Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Blackpool48%

×Draw25%

Exeter City27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.08

Blackpool

1.54

Exeter City

1.08

Blackpool creates 43% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 93 away

1.51

creates per match

1.05

1.10

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Blackpool

1.51

Exeter City

1.05

allows per match

Blackpool

1.10

Exeter City

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

73%

Blackpool or Exeter City

75%

Draw or Exeter City

52%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

24%

Exeter City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

79%

Blackpool 2+ goals

45%

Blackpool 3+ goals

20%

Exeter City 1+ goals

66%

Exeter City 2+ goals

29%

Exeter City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

64%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.51 + Exeter City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Exeter City attack 1.05 + Blackpool defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Blackpool scores more

48%

level

25%

Exeter City scores more

27%

Blackpool at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff