Blackpool 1–1 Crewe: Result & Stats | League One

Blackpool

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Crewe

D. Ballard 41'

S. Walker 86'

3/2/2021

League One · Round 33Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Blackpool53%

×Draw25%

Crewe23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.98

Blackpool

1.64

Crewe

0.98

Blackpool creates 67% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 50 away

1.53

creates per match

0.86

1.09

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Blackpool

1.53

Crewe

0.86

allows per match

Blackpool

1.09

Crewe

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

77%

Blackpool or Crewe

75%

Draw or Crewe

47%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

28%

Crewe wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

81%

Blackpool 2+ goals

49%

Blackpool 3+ goals

23%

Crewe 1+ goals

62%

Crewe 2+ goals

26%

Crewe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

70%

Crewe (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 133 matches

Crewe away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.74 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.53 + Crewe defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.64

Crewe attack 0.86 + Blackpool defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Blackpool scores more

53%

level

25%

Crewe scores more

23%

Blackpool at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

D. Ballard

Blackpool · D

7.5

Match Events

33'

R. Adebisi← D. Daniels

41'

D. Ballard↳ L. Garbutt

57'

D. Mitchell← S. Kaikai

57'

C. Hamilton← E. Simms

71'

O. Dale← M. Mandron

78'

Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel

83'

D. Powell← C. Kirk

83'

S. Walker← A. Evans

86'

S. Walker↳ R. Adebisi

90'

Luke Garbutt

90'

Matthew Virtue-Thick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolCrewe

Overview

38%Possession62%

9Total Shots10

6Corners4

11Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots10

3On Target2

3Off Target7

3Blocked1

7Inside Box9

2Outside Box1

Passing

38%Possession62%

348Total Passes547

224Accurate Passes431

64%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides5