Blackpool 3–1 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Crawley Town

L. Evans 79' (pen)

N. Ennis 18', 10'

K. Doyle 30'

2/22/2025

League One · Round 33Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Blackpool54%

×Draw23%

Crawley Town23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.10

Blackpool

1.81

Crawley Town

1.10

Blackpool creates 65% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 31 away

1.53

creates per match

1.10

1.09

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Blackpool

1.53

Crawley Town

1.10

allows per match

Blackpool

1.09

Crawley Town

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

77%

Blackpool or Crawley Town

77%

Draw or Crawley Town

46%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

30%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

84%

Blackpool 2+ goals

54%

Blackpool 3+ goals

27%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

67%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

30%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

70%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 133 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.53 + Crawley Town defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.81

Crawley Town attack 1.10 + Blackpool defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Blackpool scores more

54%

level

23%

Crawley Town scores more

23%

Blackpool at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Morgan

Blackpool · M

8.2

Match Events

10'

N. Ennis↳ C. Hamilton

18'

N. Ennis↳ A. Morgan

30'

K. Doyle↳ M. Anderson

32'

Ashley Fletcher

45+2'

Lee Evans

46'

J. Lawrence-Gabriel← C. Hamilton

57'

Will Swan

57'

Junior Quitirna← M. Anderson

75'

A. Adeyemo← H. Forster

75'

G. Holohan← B. Radcliffe

76'

J. Beesley← N. Ennis

79'

L. EvansPenalty

89'

J. Onomah← A. Morgan

90+2'

E. Baggott← H. Coulson

90'

L. Watson← K. Doyle

90'

R. Feely← T. John-Jules

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolCrawley

Overview

31%Possession69%

9Total Shots14

5Corners2

5Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots14

5On Target5

4Off Target6

0Blocked3

9Inside Box9

0Outside Box5

Passing

31%Possession69%

225Total Passes527

141Accurate Passes452

63%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1