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Blackpool vs Cardiff — League One 2025

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
T. Bloxham 81'
A. Fletcher 69', 47'
Y. Salech 90'
11/8/2025League OneLeague One · Round 15Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Blackpool34%
×Draw25%
Cardiff41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.36
Cardiff
1.53

Cardiff creates 13% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.56
Cardiff
1.74

allows per match

Blackpool
1.32
Cardiff
1.17

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
59%
Blackpool or Cardiff
75%
Draw or Cardiff
66%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
15%
Cardiff wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
74%
Blackpool 2+ goals
39%
Blackpool 3+ goals
16%
Cardiff 1+ goals
78%
Cardiff 2+ goals
45%
Cardiff 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
45%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.56 + Cardiff defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.36

Cardiff attack 1.74 + Blackpool defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Blackpool scores more
34%
level
25%
Cardiff scores more
41%

Cardiff at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
A. FletcherBlackpoolBlackpool · F
10.0

Match Events

45+1'
Michael Ihiekwe
45+1'
Rubin Colwill
46'
Z. Ashworth← H. Coulson
47'
A. Fletcher↳ J. Bowler
65'
E. Hansson← J. Bowler
67'
C. Robinson← A. Robertson
69'
A. Fletcher↳ E. Hansson
75'
A. Lyons← C. Hamilton
76'
D. Turnbull← O. Kellyman
76'
I. Davies← J. Colwill
79'
Calum Chambers
81'
T. Bloxham↳ A. Fletcher
85'
Zachary Ashworth
88'
S. Banks← A. Fletcher
89'
T. Bondo← T. Bloxham
90'
Y. Salech

Possession

34%Blackpool

Shots

19Blackpool

Pass accuracy

47%Blackpool

Statistics

BlackpoolCardiff
Overview
34%Possession66%
19Total Shots28
2.75Expected Goals (xG)3.05
5Corners7
10Fouls11
Shots
19Total Shots28
9On Target11
5Off Target8
5Blocked9
12Inside Box19
7Outside Box9
Passing
34%Possession66%
235Total Passes462
171Accurate Passes382
73%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
10Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Blackpool vs Cardiff

Blackpool beat Cardiff 3-1 in League One on November 8, 2025.

Goals: A. Fletcher (47', 69'), T. Bloxham (81'), Y. Salech (90').

Cardiff controlled possession (66%) and registered 28 shots to 19.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool.