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Blackpool vs Cambridge United — League One 2018

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
3/11/2025League OneLeague One · Round 26Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Blackpool53%
×Draw25%
Cambridge United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.65
Cambridge United
1.00

Blackpool creates 65% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 92 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.51
Cambridge United
0.89

allows per match

Blackpool
1.10
Cambridge United
1.78

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par
Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Cambridge United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
77%
Blackpool or Cambridge United
75%
Draw or Cambridge United
47%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
28%
Cambridge United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
81%
Blackpool 2+ goals
49%
Blackpool 3+ goals
23%
Cambridge United 1+ goals
63%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
26%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
70%
Cambridge United (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.51 + Cambridge United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.65

Cambridge United attack 0.89 + Blackpool defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Blackpool scores more
53%
level
25%
Cambridge United scores more
23%

Blackpool at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blackpool vs Cambridge United

Blackpool beat Cambridge United 2-1 in League One on March 11, 2025.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool, Lancashire.