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Blackpool vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Blackpool
Blackpool
Preview
15:00
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
12/19/2026League OneLeague One · Round 20Bloomfield Road
Big match
40%
Blackpool
model favours
40%24%36%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Blackpool40%
×Draw24%
Burton Albion36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.56
Burton Albion
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.49
Burton Albion
1.32

allows per match

Blackpool
1.63
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less
Burton Albion-0.21scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
64%
Blackpool or Burton Albion
76%
Draw or Burton Albion
60%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
20%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
79%
Blackpool 2+ goals
46%
Blackpool 3+ goals
21%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
77%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
43%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
52%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.56

Burton Albion attack 1.32 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Blackpool scores more
40%
level
24%
Burton Albion scores more
36%

Blackpool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion win just 24% of their away games
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Blackpool
Balanced
Burton Albion
Direct / counter-attacking
47%Possession43%
71%Pass accuracyBiggest gap64%
10.9Shots10.1
1.19xG1.31
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BlackpoolBurton Albion

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Blackpool
3
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Avg goals: 1.9BTTS: 30%
1–00–11–13–04–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Blackpool
LWWWW
Albion
LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Blackpool host Burton Albion

December 19, 2026: Blackpool take on Burton Albion in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Blackpool host Burton Albion at Bloomfield Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.