Blackpool 2–0 Burton Albion: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Burton Albion

S. Lavery 25', 19'

8/5/2023

League One · Round 1Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Blackpool40%

×Draw24%

Burton Albion36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.46

Blackpool

1.56

Burton Albion

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.49

creates per match

1.30

1.63

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Blackpool

1.49

Burton Albion

1.30

allows per match

Blackpool

1.63

Burton Albion

1.64

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less

Burton Albion-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

64%

Blackpool or Burton Albion

76%

Draw or Burton Albion

60%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

20%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

79%

Blackpool 2+ goals

46%

Blackpool 3+ goals

21%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

77%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

43%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

53%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.56

Burton Albion attack 1.30 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Blackpool scores more

40%

level

24%

Burton Albion scores more

36%

Blackpool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

S. Lavery

Blackpool · F

8.7

Match Events

6'

14'

19'

25'

32'

55'

O. Casey← M. Pennington

66'

75'

76'

76'

76'

A. Oshilaja← R. Harper

81'

J. Caprice← S. Seddon

88'

M. Virtue-Thick← O. Norburn

89'

Kenny Dougall

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolBurton

Overview

59%Possession41%

15Total Shots10

7Corners4

10Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots10

4On Target3

6Off Target4

5Blocked3

11Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

537Total Passes375

428Accurate Passes264

80%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls12

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2