Blackpool 3–1 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Bristol City

J. Bowler 48'

G. Madine 39'

C. Hamilton 36'

N. Wells 86'

2/5/2022

Championship · Round 30Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Blackpool40%

×Draw27%

Bristol City33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.21

Blackpool

1.36

Bristol City

1.21

Blackpool creates 12% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 188 away

1.23

creates per match

1.15

1.27

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Blackpool

1.23

Bristol City

1.15

allows per match

Blackpool

1.27

Bristol City

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Bristol City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

67%

Blackpool or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

60%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

19%

Bristol City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

74%

Blackpool 2+ goals

39%

Blackpool 3+ goals

16%

Bristol City 1+ goals

70%

Bristol City 2+ goals

34%

Bristol City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

55%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.49 · 188 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.23 + Bristol City defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bristol City attack 1.15 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Blackpool scores more

40%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

33%

Blackpool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

K. Dougall

Blackpool · M

7.7

Match Events

36'

C. Hamilton↳ J. Yates

39'

G. Madine↳ K. Dougall

44'

Josh Bowler

46'

J. Williams← C. ODowda

48'

J. Bowler↳ K. Dougall

61'

67'

74'

80'

80'

81'

81'

83'

J. Beesley← G. Madine

84'

84'

86'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolBristol

Overview

39%Possession61%

7Total Shots9

6Corners4

11Fouls4

Shots

7Total Shots9

5On Target4

2Off Target3

0Blocked2

7Inside Box6

0Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

295Total Passes485

181Accurate Passes372

61%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls4

4Yellow Cards4

4Offsides4

Championship: Blackpool 3–1 Bristol City

Blackpool beat Bristol City 3-1 in Championship on February 5, 2022.

Goals: C. Hamilton (36'), G. Madine (39'), J. Bowler (48'), N. Wells (86').

Bristol City controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool, Lancashire.

Blackpool vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Blackpool 3–1 Bristol City