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Blackpool vs Bournemouth — Championship 2018

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
J. Bowler 37'
S. Dembélé 90+5'
J. Lowe 86'
2/12/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 32Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Blackpool30%
×Draw27%
Bournemouth43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.07
Bournemouth
1.33

Bournemouth creates 24% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 50 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.23
Bournemouth
1.40

allows per match

Blackpool
1.27
Bournemouth
0.92

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par
Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Bournemouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
57%
Blackpool or Bournemouth
73%
Draw or Bournemouth
70%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
12%
Bournemouth wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
66%
Blackpool 2+ goals
29%
Blackpool 3+ goals
9%
Bournemouth 1+ goals
74%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
38%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
41%
Bournemouth (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.23 + Bournemouth defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.07

Bournemouth attack 1.40 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Blackpool scores more
30%
level
27%
Bournemouth scores more
43%

Bournemouth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42
M. TraversBournemouthBournemouth · G
7.9

Match Events

37'
J. Bowler
61'
O. Casey← M. Ekpiteta
70'
J. Lowe← J. Stacey
74'
S. Lavery← J. Yates
79'
E. Marcondes← P. Billing
84'
L. Davis← J. Zemura
85'
Emiliano Marcondes
86'
J. Lowe
89'
Dujon Sterling
90+4'
Callum Connolly
90+5'
S. Dembélé↳ E. Marcondes

Possession

30%Blackpool

Shots

15Blackpool

Pass accuracy

41%Blackpool

Statistics

BlackpoolBournemouth
Overview
30%Possession70%
15Total Shots13
6Corners7
14Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots13
7On Target7
3Off Target3
5Blocked3
11Inside Box10
4Outside Box3
Passing
30%Possession70%
215Total Passes512
119Accurate Passes409
55%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
14Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
4Offsides0

Championship: Blackpool 1–2 Bournemouth

Bournemouth beat Blackpool 2-1 in Championship on February 12, 2022.

Goals: J. Bowler (37'), J. Lowe (86'), S. Dembélé (90+5').

Bournemouth controlled possession (70%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool, Lancashire.