Blackpool 2–1 Bolton: Result & Stats | League One

Blackpool

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bolton

K. Dewsbury-Hall 90'

C. Ronan 13'

K. Bryan 88'

2/25/2020

League One · Round 26Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Blackpool35%

×Draw24%

Bolton41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.57

Blackpool

1.45

Bolton

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

1.49

creates per match

1.51

1.63

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Blackpool

1.49

Bolton

1.51

allows per match

Blackpool

1.63

Bolton

1.41

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less

Bolton-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

59%

Blackpool or Bolton

76%

Draw or Bolton

65%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

16%

Bolton wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

77%

Blackpool 2+ goals

42%

Blackpool 3+ goals

18%

Bolton 1+ goals

79%

Bolton 2+ goals

46%

Bolton 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

47%

Bolton (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + Bolton defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bolton attack 1.51 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Blackpool scores more

35%

level

24%

Bolton scores more

41%

Bolton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

K. Dewsbury-Hall

Blackpool · M

8.1

Match Events

13'

C. Ronan↳ K. Dewsbury-Hall

32'

46'

52'

66'

74'

78'

J. Spearing← C. Ronan

82'

J. Mellis← A. Crawford

84'

J. Nuttall← G. Madine

88'

K. Bryan↳ J. Dodoo

90'

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

90+3'

R. Edwards← L. Feeney

90'

K. Dewsbury-Hall↳ L. Feeney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolBolton

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots16

10Corners4

9Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots16

4On Target2

4Off Target9

3Blocked5

4Inside Box10

7Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

379Total Passes458

268Accurate Passes328

71%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0