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Blackburn vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stoke City
Stoke City
J. Brown 4'
4/18/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 43Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 50+ matches

Blackburn46%
×Draw26%
Stoke City28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.48
Stoke City
1.08

Blackburn creates 37% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 50 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.33
Stoke City
1.04

allows per match

Blackburn
1.11
Stoke City
1.64

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less
Stoke City-0.26scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
72%
Blackburn or Stoke City
74%
Draw or Stoke City
54%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
23%
Stoke City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
77%
Blackburn 2+ goals
43%
Blackburn 3+ goals
19%
Stoke City 1+ goals
66%
Stoke City 2+ goals
29%
Stoke City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
63%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Stoke City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Stoke City attack 1.04 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Blackburn scores more
46%
level
26%
Stoke City scores more
28%

Blackburn at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
L. TravisBlackburnBlackburn · M
7.9

Match Events

4'
J. Brown↳ J. Maja
23'
Josh Maja
32'
Scott Wharton
34'
Jan Paul van Hecke
46'
J. Rothwell← J. van Hecke
56'
Tommy Smith
67'
J. Buckley← B. Johnson
75'
R. Hedges← T. Dolan
78'
J. Philogene-Bidace← R. Sawyers
85'
S. Fletcher← J. Maja

Possession

48%Blackburn

Shots

13Blackburn

Pass accuracy

50%Blackburn

Statistics

BlackburnStoke
Overview
48%Possession52%
13Total Shots7
1Corners3
13Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots7
4On Target2
7Off Target2
2Blocked3
8Inside Box6
5Outside Box1
Passing
48%Possession52%
388Total Passes427
295Accurate Passes327
76%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
5Offsides2

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Stoke City

Stoke City beat Blackburn 1-0 in Championship on April 18, 2022.

Goals: J. Brown (4').

Stoke City controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn, Lancashire.