Blackburn 1–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stoke City

J. Buckley 76'

N. Powell 38'

1/16/2021

Championship · Round 24Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 50+ matches

Blackburn46%

×Draw26%

Stoke City28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.08

Blackburn

1.48

Stoke City

1.08

Blackburn creates 37% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 50 away

1.33

creates per match

1.04

1.11

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Blackburn

1.33

Stoke City

1.04

allows per match

Blackburn

1.11

Stoke City

1.64

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less

Stoke City-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

72%

Blackburn or Stoke City

74%

Draw or Stoke City

54%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

23%

Stoke City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

77%

Blackburn 2+ goals

43%

Blackburn 3+ goals

19%

Stoke City 1+ goals

66%

Stoke City 2+ goals

29%

Stoke City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

63%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Stoke City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Stoke City attack 1.04 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Blackburn scores more

46%

level

26%

Stoke City scores more

28%

Blackburn at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

N. Powell

Stoke City · F

8.0

Match Events

36'

Lewis Travis

38'

N. Powell↳ J. Thompson

46'

J. Davenport← B. Johnson

46'

S. Gallagher← J. Rothwell

48'

Jordan Thompson

61'

B. Brereton← S. Gallagher

61'

J. Clarke← N. Powell

64'

L. Holtby← L. Travis

71'

Rhys Norrington Davies

72'

J. Buckley← B. Dack

76'

J. Buckley↳ H. Elliott

79'

James Chester

83'

J. Cousins← J. Allen

83'

D. Batth← R. Matondo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnStoke

Overview

54%Possession46%

8Total Shots15

2Corners7

11Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots15

3On Target2

3Off Target10

2Blocked3

7Inside Box9

1Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

447Total Passes358

350Accurate Passes263

78%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1