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Blackburn vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
A. Armstrong 90+8'
H. Elliott 80'
M. Smith 61'
12/16/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 19Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Blackburn59%
×Draw24%
Rotherham17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.70
Rotherham
0.78

Blackburn creates 118% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 12 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.33
Rotherham
0.47

allows per match

Blackburn
1.09
Rotherham
2.06

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less
Rotherham-0.05on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
83%
Blackburn or Rotherham
76%
Draw or Rotherham
41%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
33%
Rotherham wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
82%
Blackburn 2+ goals
51%
Blackburn 3+ goals
24%
Rotherham 1+ goals
54%
Rotherham 2+ goals
18%
Rotherham 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
78%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 60 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.06 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Rotherham defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.70

Rotherham attack 0.47 + Blackburn defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Blackburn scores more
59%
level
24%
Rotherham scores more
17%

Blackburn at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
A. ArmstrongBlackburnBlackburn · F
8.0

Match Events

38'
Michael Ihiekwe
58'
Barry Douglas
59'
A. Bell← B. Douglas
59'
S. Downing← J. Rothwell
61'
M. Smith↳ M. Crooks
64'
Jamie Lindsay
68'
L. Holtby← J. Buckley
68'
T. Trybull← B. Johnson
70'
G. Hirst← M. Smith
71'
F. Ladapo← K. Vassell
71'
W. Harding← B. Wiles
80'
H. Elliott↳ A. Armstrong
89'
T. Dolan← S. Gallagher
90'
Ryan Nyambe
90'
Billy Jones
90+4'
B. Jones← D. Barlaser
90+8'
A. Armstrong↳ Daniel Ayala

Possession

67%Blackburn

Shots

11Blackburn

Pass accuracy

61%Blackburn

Statistics

BlackburnRotherham
Overview
67%Possession33%
11Total Shots10
3Corners0
12Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots10
4On Target1
4Off Target7
3Blocked2
6Inside Box9
5Outside Box1
Passing
67%Possession33%
497Total Passes241
373Accurate Passes116
75%Pass Accuracy48%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Rotherham

Blackburn beat Rotherham 2-1 in Championship on December 16, 2020.

Goals: M. Smith (61'), H. Elliott (80'), A. Armstrong (90+8').

Blackburn controlled possession (67%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn, Lancashire.