Blackburn 4–3 Reading: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Reading

S. Gallagher 87'

J. Rothwell 56'

A. Armstrong 6'

B. Brereton 3'

Y. Meïté 68'

S. Baldock 64'

J. Swift 15'

7/18/2020

Championship · Round 45Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Blackburn45%

×Draw27%

Reading28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.05

Blackburn

1.42

Reading

1.05

Blackburn creates 35% more chances

Season form · 189 home / 112 away

1.34

creates per match

0.99

1.11

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Blackburn

1.34

Reading

0.99

allows per match

Blackburn

1.11

Reading

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackburn+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

72%

Blackburn or Reading

73%

Draw or Reading

55%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

22%

Reading wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

76%

Blackburn 2+ goals

41%

Blackburn 3+ goals

17%

Reading 1+ goals

65%

Reading 2+ goals

28%

Reading 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

62%

Reading (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 189 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.34 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Reading attack 0.99 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blackburn scores more

45%

level

27%

Reading scores more

28%

Blackburn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Rothwell

Blackburn · M

8.3

Match Events

3'

B. Brereton↳ L. Holtby

6'

A. Armstrong↳ J. Rothwell

15'

J. Swift

36'

L. Moore← T. Mcintyre

56'

J. Rothwell↳ L. Holtby

59'

S. Baldock← G. Puşcaş

59'

G. McCleary← O. Richards

59'

J. Obita← T. Blackett

64'

S. Baldock↳ J. Obita

68'

Y. Meïté↳ S. Baldock

69'

S. Gallagher← B. Brereton

69'

J. Buckley← L. Holtby

70'

J. Davenport← B. Johnson

71'

Jacob Davenport

78'

H. Chapman← J. Rothwell

78'

J. Vale← A. Armstrong

83'

G. Osho← J. Swift

87'

S. Gallagher↳ H. Chapman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnReading

Overview

63%Possession37%

17Total Shots13

5Corners4

15Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots13

5On Target3

7Off Target7

5Blocked3

10Inside Box7

7Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

570Total Passes317

459Accurate Passes213

81%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls13

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0