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Blackburn vs Reading — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Reading
Reading
C. Mulgrew 76' (pen), 51' (pen)
J. Böðvarsson 25', 12'
8/22/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 4Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Blackburn45%
×Draw27%
Reading28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.42
Reading
1.05

Blackburn creates 35% more chances

Season form · 189 home / 112 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.34
Reading
0.99

allows per match

Blackburn
1.11
Reading
1.49

finishing

Blackburn+0.00on par
Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
72%
Blackburn or Reading
73%
Draw or Reading
55%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
22%
Reading wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
76%
Blackburn 2+ goals
41%
Blackburn 3+ goals
17%
Reading 1+ goals
65%
Reading 2+ goals
28%
Reading 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
62%
Reading (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 189 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.34 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Reading attack 0.99 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blackburn scores more
45%
level
27%
Reading scores more
28%

Blackburn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
C. MulgrewBlackburnBlackburn · D
8.7

Match Events

12'
J. Böðvarsson
25'
J. Böðvarsson
45'
C. Conway← A. Armstrong
46'
D. Samuel← R. Smallwood
51'
C. MulgrewPenalty
63'
J. Sims← S. Aluko
72'
J. Nuttall← D. Samuel
76'
C. MulgrewPenalty
77'
M. Barrow← Y. Meïté
84'
M. McNulty← S. Baldock
86'
Corry Evans

Possession

60%Blackburn

Shots

16Blackburn

Pass accuracy

53%Blackburn

Statistics

BlackburnReading
Overview
60%Possession40%
16Total Shots8
6Corners1
7Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots8
4On Target4
9Off Target2
3Blocked2
10Inside Box6
6Outside Box2
Passing
60%Possession40%
493Total Passes325
346Accurate Passes199
70%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Championship: Blackburn 2–2 Reading

Blackburn and Reading drew 2-2 in Championship on August 22, 2018.

Goals: J. Böðvarsson (12', 25'), C. Mulgrew (51' pen, 76' pen).

Blackburn controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn.