Blackburn 1–4 Leicester: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Leicester

S. Szmodics 9'

K. Dewsbury-Hall 88'

K. Ịheanachọ 82' (pen)

J. Vardy 28'

W. Faes 4'

10/1/2023

Championship · Round 9Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Blackburn37%

×Draw26%

Leicester36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.28

Blackburn

1.31

Leicester

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 38 away

1.31

creates per match

1.49

1.07

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Blackburn

1.31

Leicester

1.49

allows per match

Blackburn

1.07

Leicester

1.31

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.28scores less

Leicester+0.06on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

64%

Blackburn or Leicester

74%

Draw or Leicester

63%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

17%

Leicester wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

73%

Blackburn 2+ goals

38%

Blackburn 3+ goals

14%

Leicester 1+ goals

72%

Leicester 2+ goals

37%

Leicester 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

51%

Leicester (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.07 · 58 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.31 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Leicester defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Leicester attack 1.49 + Blackburn defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Blackburn scores more

37%

level

26%

Leicester scores more

36%

Blackburn at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Szmodics

Blackburn · F

7.9

Match Events

4'

W. Faes↳ A. Fatawu

9'

S. Szmodics

15'

Abdul Fatawu Issahaku

28'

30'

46'

48'

58'

K. McAteer← A. Fatawu

61'

T. Dolan← A. Sigurðsson

62'

L. Wahlstedt← A. Pears

70'

Adam Wharton

70'

Y. Akgün← S. Mavididi

71'

H. Choudhury← Ricardo Pereira

76'

K. Ịheanachọ← J. Vardy

76'

C. Casadei← K. McAteer

82'

K. ỊheanachọPenalty

83'

S. Tronstad← A. Wharton

83'

S. Telalović← D. Markanday

87'

J. Rankin-Costello← H. Pickering

88'

K. Dewsbury-Hall↳ Y. Akgün

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnLeicester

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots11

1.42Expected Goals (xG)1.80

5Corners6

8Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots11

4On Target4

5Off Target3

6Blocked4

11Inside Box10

4Outside Box1

Passing

48%Possession52%

524Total Passes576

448Accurate Passes498

85%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Championship: Blackburn 1–4 Leicester

Leicester beat Blackburn 4-1 in Championship on October 1, 2023.

Goals: W. Faes (4'), S. Szmodics (9'), J. Vardy (28'), K. Ịheanachọ (82' pen), K. Dewsbury-Hall (88').

Leicester controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn, Lancashire.

Blackburn vs Leicester — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Blackburn 1–4 Leicester