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Blackburn vs Charlton — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
Preview
15:00
Charlton
Charlton
11/28/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 18Ewood Park
Big match
47%
Blackburn
model favours
47%27%26%

Charlton have scored in 9 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Blackburn47%
×Draw27%
Charlton26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.43
Charlton
0.98

Blackburn creates 46% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 21 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.31
Charlton
0.89

allows per match

Blackburn
1.06
Charlton
1.55

finishing

Blackburn-0.27scores less
Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
74%
Blackburn or Charlton
73%
Draw or Charlton
53%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
23%
Charlton wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
76%
Blackburn 2+ goals
42%
Blackburn 3+ goals
17%
Charlton 1+ goals
62%
Charlton 2+ goals
26%
Charlton 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
65%
Charlton (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 57 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Charlton attack 0.89 + Blackburn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Blackburn scores more
47%
level
27%
Charlton scores more
26%

Blackburn at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Charlton score first in only 30% of matches
  • 70% of Charlton’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Blackburn have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Blackburn
Balanced
Charlton
Direct / counter-attacking
50%Possession43%
75%Pass accuracy70%
11.1Shots10.5
1.15xGBiggest gap1.00
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BlackburnCharlton

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

7
Blackburn
2
Draws
1
Charlton
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 50%
2–20–32–02–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Blackburn
LWWDL
Charlton
WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blackburn vs Charlton — Match Preview

Blackburn face Charlton on November 28, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Blackburn host Charlton at Ewood Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.