Blackburn 3–0 Charlton: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Charlton

T. Lawrence 85'

J. Rhodes 75', 45+1'

9/19/2015

Championship · Round 8Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Blackburn47%

×Draw27%

Charlton26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.00

Blackburn

1.44

Charlton

1.00

Blackburn creates 44% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 21 away

1.33

creates per match

0.89

1.11

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Blackburn

1.33

Charlton

0.89

allows per match

Blackburn

1.11

Charlton

1.55

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less

Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

74%

Blackburn or Charlton

73%

Draw or Charlton

53%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

23%

Charlton wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

76%

Blackburn 2+ goals

42%

Blackburn 3+ goals

18%

Charlton 1+ goals

63%

Charlton 2+ goals

26%

Charlton 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

64%

Charlton (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Charlton attack 0.89 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Blackburn scores more

47%

level

27%

Charlton scores more

26%

Blackburn at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

T. Lawrence

Blackburn · M

8.0

Match Events

45+1'

J. Rhodes↳ G. Hanley

61'

Vetokele← M. Kennedy

67'

Grant Hanley

69'

C. McAleny← Z. Bergdich

75'

T. Lawrence← F. Koita

75'

J. Rhodes↳ T. Lawrence

78'

H. Akpan← D. Guthrie

85'

T. Lawrence↳ A. Henley

89'

L. Williamson← C. Evans

89'

K. Ahearne-Grant← T. Watt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnCharlton

Overview

59%Possession41%

16Total Shots9

11Corners7

0Fouls0

Shots

16Total Shots9

8On Target3

6Off Target3

2Blocked3

13Inside Box7

3Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

514Total Passes370

416Accurate Passes259

81%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

0Fouls0

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1