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Blackburn vs Burnley — Championship 2025

Blackburn
Blackburn
Preview
15:00
Burnley
Burnley
2/6/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 30Ewood Park
53%
Burnley
model favours
17%31%53%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
74%
under 2.5 goals
30%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Blackburn17%
×Draw31%
Burnley53%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
0.55
Burnley
1.22

Burnley creates 122% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 4 away

creates per match

Blackburn
0.85
Burnley
1.25

allows per match

Blackburn
1.19
Burnley
0.25

finishing

Blackburn+0.00on par
Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–121%
0–213%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
47%
Blackburn or Burnley
69%
Draw or Burnley
83%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
4%
Burnley wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
42%
Blackburn 2+ goals
11%
Blackburn 3+ goals
2%
Burnley 1+ goals
70%
Burnley 2+ goals
34%
Burnley 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
24%
Burnley (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 0.85 + Burnley defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.55

Burnley attack 1.25 + Blackburn defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Blackburn scores more
17%
level
31%
Burnley scores more
53%

Burnley at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burnley win just 9% of their away games
  • Blackburn and Burnley have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Blackburn
DLWDL
Burnley
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blackburn vs Burnley — Match Preview

Blackburn face Burnley on February 6, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Blackburn host Burnley at Ewood Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.