Blackburn 0–1 Burnley: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burnley

Z. Flemming 60'

1/4/2025

Championship · Round 26Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Blackburn19%

×Draw26%

Burnley54%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.50

Blackburn

0.78

Burnley

1.50

Burnley creates 92% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 28 away

1.00

creates per match

1.79

1.20

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Blackburn

1.00

Burnley

1.79

allows per match

Blackburn

1.20

Burnley

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackburn+0.00on par

Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

46%

Blackburn or Burnley

74%

Draw or Burnley

81%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

6%

Burnley wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

54%

Blackburn 2+ goals

18%

Blackburn 3+ goals

4%

Burnley 1+ goals

78%

Burnley 2+ goals

44%

Burnley 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

26%

Burnley (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.00 + Burnley defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Burnley attack 1.79 + Blackburn defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Blackburn scores more

19%

level

26%

Burnley scores more

54%

Burnley at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Z. Flemming

Burnley · F

8.2

Match Events

32'

Danny Batth

40'

Josh Laurent

54'

Dominic Hyam

60'

Z. Flemming↳ B. Humphreys

74'

A. Weimann← A. Cozier-Duberry

75'

H. Leonard← M. Gueye

78'

L. Foster← J. Sarmiento

82'

J. Buckley← L. Baker

82'

J. Rankin-Costello← T. Dolan

86'

R. Hedges← S. Tronstad

87'

Josh Cullen

89'

J. Egan← Z. Flemming

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnBurnley

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots4

1.04Expected Goals (xG)0.24

10Corners0

16Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots4

0On Target2

5Off Target0

5Blocked2

6Inside Box3

4Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

380Total Passes420

305Accurate Passes337

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

0.00Goals Prevented0.00

Discipline

16Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0