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Blackburn vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
12/12/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 21Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Blackburn42%
×Draw28%
Bristol City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.28
Bristol City
1.02

Blackburn creates 25% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 46 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.22
Bristol City
1.12

allows per match

Blackburn
0.92
Bristol City
1.34

finishing

Blackburn-0.22scores less
Bristol City+0.01on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
70%
Blackburn or Bristol City
72%
Draw or Bristol City
58%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
19%
Bristol City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
72%
Blackburn 2+ goals
37%
Blackburn 3+ goals
14%
Bristol City 1+ goals
64%
Bristol City 2+ goals
27%
Bristol City 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
59%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.92 · 20 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.34 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.22 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.28

Bristol City attack 1.12 + Blackburn defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Blackburn scores more
42%
level
28%
Bristol City scores more
30%

Blackburn at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Bristol City

Blackburn beat Bristol City 2-1 in Championship on December 12, 2023.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn, Lancashire.