Blackburn 2–3 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Bristol City

B. Brereton 90+3'

T. Dolan 71'

N. Wells 73', 55'

T. Conway 42'

9/3/2022

Championship · Round 8Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Blackburn43%

×Draw28%

Bristol City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.06

Blackburn

1.32

Bristol City

1.06

Blackburn creates 25% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 60 away

1.31

creates per match

1.04

1.07

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Blackburn

1.31

Bristol City

1.04

allows per match

Blackburn

1.07

Bristol City

1.33

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.28scores less

Bristol City-0.06on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

70%

Blackburn or Bristol City

72%

Draw or Bristol City

57%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

20%

Bristol City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

73%

Blackburn 2+ goals

38%

Blackburn 3+ goals

15%

Bristol City 1+ goals

65%

Bristol City 2+ goals

29%

Bristol City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

59%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.07 · 58 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Bristol City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bristol City attack 1.04 + Blackburn defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Blackburn scores more

43%

level

28%

Bristol City scores more

30%

Blackburn at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

N. Wells

Bristol City · F

8.7

Match Events

6'

Adam Wharton

42'

T. Conway↳ A. Weimann

46'

46'

55'

57'

58'

61'

J. Vale← G. Hirst

63'

A. Semenyo← T. Conway

67'

Harry Pickering

69'

T. Edun← A. Wharton

71'

T. Dolan↳ T. Edun

73'

N. Wells

87'

J. Williams← N. Wells

90+1'

H. Massengo← A. Scott

90+3'

B. Brereton↳ T. Dolan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnBristol

Overview

62%Possession38%

11Total Shots16

5Corners6

8Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots16

6On Target5

2Off Target10

3Blocked1

9Inside Box13

2Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

553Total Passes319

443Accurate Passes227

80%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0