Blackburn 0–1 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol City

E. Pisano 80'

2/9/2019

Championship · Round 31Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 61+ matches

Blackburn42%

×Draw27%

Bristol City31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.10

Blackburn

1.33

Bristol City

1.10

Blackburn creates 21% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 62 away

1.33

creates per match

1.10

1.11

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Blackburn

1.33

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

Blackburn

1.11

Bristol City

1.34

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

69%

Blackburn or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

58%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

19%

Bristol City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

74%

Blackburn 2+ goals

38%

Blackburn 3+ goals

15%

Bristol City 1+ goals

67%

Bristol City 2+ goals

30%

Bristol City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

58%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Blackburn scores more

42%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

31%

Blackburn at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

F. Fielding

Bristol City · G

7.4

Match Events

25'

37'

58'

63'

73'

K. Palmer← A. Weimann

73'

M. Taylor← J. Paterson

74'

J. Rothwell← B. Dack

75'

Josh Brownhill

80'

E. Pisano↳ C. O'Dowda

83'

J. Nuttall← R. Smallwood

90'

Frank Fielding

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnBristol

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots13

4Corners8

8Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots13

2On Target6

6Off Target5

3Blocked2

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

370Total Passes348

242Accurate Passes231

65%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls7

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4

Championship: Blackburn 0–1 Bristol City

Bristol City beat Blackburn 1-0 in Championship on February 9, 2019.

Goals: E. Pisano (80').

Blackburn controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn.

Blackburn vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Blackburn 0–1 Bristol City