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Blackburn Rovers U21 vs Nottingham Forest U21 — League #702 2026

Blackburn Rovers U21
Blackburn Rovers U21
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Nottingham Forest U21
Nottingham Forest U21
2/24/2025League #702League #702 · Group 1 - 20Lancashire FA County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Blackburn Rovers U2148%
×Draw23%
Nottingham Forest U2130%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn Rovers U21
1.83
Nottingham Forest U21
1.40

Blackburn Rovers U21 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Blackburn Rovers U21
2.67
Nottingham Forest U21
1.13

allows per match

Blackburn Rovers U21
1.67
Nottingham Forest U21
1.00

finishing

Blackburn Rovers U21+0.00on par
Nottingham Forest U21+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn Rovers U21 ↓

Nottingham Forest U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Blackburn Rovers U21 or draw
70%
Blackburn Rovers U21 or Nottingham Forest U21
77%
Draw or Nottingham Forest U21
52%

Winning margin

Blackburn Rovers U21 wins by 2+
26%
Nottingham Forest U21 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Blackburn Rovers U21 1+ goals
84%
Blackburn Rovers U21 2+ goals
54%
Blackburn Rovers U21 3+ goals
28%
Nottingham Forest U21 1+ goals
75%
Nottingham Forest U21 2+ goals
41%
Nottingham Forest U21 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Blackburn Rovers U21 (draw refunded)
62%
Nottingham Forest U21 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn Rovers U21 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Nottingham Forest U21 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn Rovers U21 attack 2.67 + Nottingham Forest U21 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Nottingham Forest U21 attack 1.13 + Blackburn Rovers U21 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Blackburn Rovers U21 scores more
48%
level
23%
Nottingham Forest U21 scores more
30%

Blackburn Rovers U21 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Blackburn Rovers U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #702: Blackburn Rovers U21 3–2 Nottingham Forest U21

Blackburn Rovers U21 beat Nottingham Forest U21 3-2 in League #702 on February 24, 2025.

The match was played at Lancashire FA County Ground in Leyland, Lancashire.