Blackburn Rovers U21 5–0 Birmingham City U21

Blackburn Rovers U21

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Birmingham City U21

B. Powell 68'

I. Tyjon 55'

J. Garrett 53'

O. Kamara 49'

A. Doherty 17'

1/26/2026

League #702 · Round 12Blackburn Rovers Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Blackburn Rovers U2166%

×Draw16%

Birmingham City U2118%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blackburn Rovers U21Expected goals in this matchBirmingham City U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

1.52

Blackburn Rovers U21

2.96

Birmingham City U21

1.52

Blackburn Rovers U21 creates 95% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

2.67

creates per match

1.38

1.67

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Blackburn Rovers U21

2.67

Birmingham City U21

1.38

allows per match

Blackburn Rovers U21

1.67

Birmingham City U21

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackburn Rovers U21+0.00on par

Birmingham City U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn Rovers U21 ↓

Birmingham City U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Blackburn Rovers U21 or draw

82%

Blackburn Rovers U21 or Birmingham City U21

84%

Draw or Birmingham City U21

34%

Winning margin

Blackburn Rovers U21 wins by 2+

46%

Birmingham City U21 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Blackburn Rovers U21 1+ goals

95%

Blackburn Rovers U21 2+ goals

79%

Blackburn Rovers U21 3+ goals

55%

Birmingham City U21 1+ goals

78%

Birmingham City U21 2+ goals

45%

Birmingham City U21 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Blackburn Rovers U21 (draw refunded)

79%

Birmingham City U21 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn Rovers U21 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Birmingham City U21 away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn Rovers U21 attack 2.67 + Birmingham City U21 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.96

Birmingham City U21 attack 1.38 + Blackburn Rovers U21 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Blackburn Rovers U21 scores more

66%

level

16%

Birmingham City U21 scores more

18%

Blackburn Rovers U21 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Blackburn Rovers U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

A. Doherty↳ J. Garrett

43'

B. Burrell

46'

O. Kamara← N. Dlamini

46'

A. Ranson← B. Burrell

46'

D. Isichei← B. Bateman

49'

O. Kamara↳ L. Houghton

53'

J. Garrett

55'

I. Tyjon↳ J. Batty

60'

M. Davies← H. Carter

60'

C. Maddox← C. Pennington

60'

M. Campbell← Z. Betteka

66'

V. Joseph← A. Doherty

68'

B. Powell↳ L. Houghton

75'

Z. Stritch← F. Vare

90+4'

C. Sanders

Blackburn

Birmingham

1

O'Sulliva

2

Quirk

4

▼

Burrell

7

▼

3

6

8

20

15

17

▼

Betteka

9

▼

Bateman

1

Michalski

2

A

Houghton

5

Pratt

6

▼

Vare

3

A

Batty

8

⚽A

Garrett

4

▼

Carter

7

⚽

▼

Doherty

10

⚽

Powell

11

▼

Dlamini

9

⚽

Tyjon

Manager: Mike Sheron Nigel

46'▲O. Kamara←▼N. Dlamini

60'▲M. Davies←▼H. Carter

66'▲V. Joseph←▼A. Doherty

75'▲Z. Stritch←▼F. Vare

Blackburn Rovers U21 substitutes

13Wolsoncroft12Davies14Stritch16Joseph15Kamara

Manager: Mark John Kennedy

46'▲A. Ranson←▼B. Burrell

46'▲D. Isichei←▼B. Bateman

60'▲C. Maddox←▼C. Pennington

60'▲M. Campbell←▼Z. Betteka

Birmingham City U21 substitutes

13Terenowicz25Ranson21Maddox19Isichei14Campbell