Blackburn Rovers U18 6–2 Leeds United U18

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blackburn Rovers U18Expected goals in this matchLeeds United U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

1.60

Blackburn Rovers U18

2.96

Leeds United U18

1.60

Blackburn Rovers U18 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

2.91

creates per match

1.38

1.82

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Blackburn Rovers U18

2.91

Leeds United U18

1.38

allows per match

Blackburn Rovers U18

1.82

Leeds United U18

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackburn Rovers U18+0.00on par

Leeds United U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn Rovers U18 ↓

Leeds United U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Blackburn Rovers U18 or draw

81%

Blackburn Rovers U18 or Leeds United U18

83%

Draw or Leeds United U18

36%

Winning margin

Blackburn Rovers U18 wins by 2+

45%

Leeds United U18 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Blackburn Rovers U18 1+ goals

95%

Blackburn Rovers U18 2+ goals

79%

Blackburn Rovers U18 3+ goals

55%

Leeds United U18 1+ goals

80%

Leeds United U18 2+ goals

47%

Leeds United U18 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Blackburn Rovers U18 (draw refunded)

77%

Leeds United U18 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn Rovers U18 at home — creates 2.91, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Leeds United U18 away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn Rovers U18 attack 2.91 + Leeds United U18 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.96

Leeds United U18 attack 1.38 + Blackburn Rovers U18 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Blackburn Rovers U18 scores more

64%

level

17%

Leeds United U18 scores more

19%

Blackburn Rovers U18 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Blackburn Rovers U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

F. Lane↳ O. Pickles

15'

L. Kelley-Quinn↳ P. Farkas

16'

V. Joseph↳ I. Dunn

39'

O. Pickles↳ J. Watson

41'

C. Mills

43'

P. Farkas

46'

F. Leatherbarrow↳ H. Pates

58'

A. Potter

62'

T. Mansbridge← A. Potter

62'

64'

65'

67'

67'

74'

77'

B. Leeming← N. Dlamini

84'

90+2'

90+2'

90+3'

90+3'

Blackburn

Leeds

1

Kenyon

3

Billett

6

▼

Hamilton

7

▼

Morris

5

A

Watson

8

⚽A

Pickles

2

⚽

4

11

9

10

1

5

2

3

A

Pates

4

⚽

Kelley-Qu

10

⚽A

▼

Farkas

6

A

▼

Dunn

11

⚽

Leatherba

8

⚽

▼

Potter

9

⚽

Joseph

7

▼

Dlamini

Manager: R. Kidd

62'▲T. Mansbridge←▼A. Potter

62'▲F. Vare←▼P. Farkas

67'▲J. Sergent←▼I. Dunn

77'▲B. Leeming←▼N. Dlamini

Blackburn Rovers U18 substitutes

14Mansbridge15Vare16Sergent12Leeming13Thompson

Manager: R. Etherington

65'▲E. Simo←▼J. Hamilton

67'▲L. Brown←▼J. Morris

Leeds United U18 substitutes

13Simo14Brown12Baird15Firth

Match Recap: Blackburn Rovers U18 vs Leeds United U18

Blackburn Rovers U18 beat Leeds United U18 6-2 in League #695 on February 25, 2025.

Goals: F. Lane (5'), L. Kelley-Quinn (15'), V. Joseph (16'), O. Pickles (39'), P. Farkas (43'), F. Leatherbarrow (46'), A. Potter (58'), T. Mansbridge (84').

The match was played at Blackburn Rovers Training Centre in Brockhall Village, Lancashire.

Blackburn Rovers U18 vs Leeds United U18 — League #695 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Blackburn Rovers U18 vs Leeds United U18