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Black Swallows vs Young Buffaloes — Premier League 2020

Black Swallows
Black Swallows
FT
0 – 3
Young Buffaloes
Young Buffaloes
6/20/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Black Swallows21%
×Draw22%
Young Buffaloes57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Swallows
1.06
Young Buffaloes
1.90

Young Buffaloes creates 79% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

creates per match

Black Swallows
1.33
Young Buffaloes
1.86

allows per match

Black Swallows
1.93
Young Buffaloes
0.78

finishing

Black Swallows+0.00on par
Young Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Swallows ↓

Young Buffaloes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Black Swallows or draw
43%
Black Swallows or Young Buffaloes
78%
Draw or Young Buffaloes
79%

Winning margin

Black Swallows wins by 2+
8%
Young Buffaloes wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Black Swallows 1+ goals
65%
Black Swallows 2+ goals
29%
Black Swallows 3+ goals
9%
Young Buffaloes 1+ goals
85%
Young Buffaloes 2+ goals
56%
Young Buffaloes 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Black Swallows (draw refunded)
27%
Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Swallows at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Young Buffaloes away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Swallows attack 1.33 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.06

Young Buffaloes attack 1.86 + Black Swallows defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Black Swallows scores more
21%
level
22%
Young Buffaloes scores more
57%

Young Buffaloes at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Black Swallows vs Young Buffaloes

Young Buffaloes beat Black Swallows 3-0 in Premier League on June 20, 2021.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.