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Black Swallows vs Royal Leopards — Premier League 2020

Black Swallows
Black Swallows
FT
2 – 4
Royal Leopards
Royal Leopards
4/28/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Killarney Sports Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Black Swallows23%
×Draw22%
Royal Leopards55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Swallows
1.15
Royal Leopards
1.90

Royal Leopards creates 65% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 85 away

creates per match

Black Swallows
1.33
Royal Leopards
1.88

allows per match

Black Swallows
1.93
Royal Leopards
0.96

finishing

Black Swallows+0.00on par
Royal Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Swallows ↓

Royal Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Black Swallows or draw
45%
Black Swallows or Royal Leopards
78%
Draw or Royal Leopards
77%

Winning margin

Black Swallows wins by 2+
9%
Royal Leopards wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Black Swallows 1+ goals
68%
Black Swallows 2+ goals
32%
Black Swallows 3+ goals
11%
Royal Leopards 1+ goals
85%
Royal Leopards 2+ goals
56%
Royal Leopards 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Black Swallows (draw refunded)
29%
Royal Leopards (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Swallows at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Royal Leopards away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.96 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Swallows attack 1.33 + Royal Leopards defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Royal Leopards attack 1.88 + Black Swallows defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Black Swallows scores more
23%
level
22%
Royal Leopards scores more
55%

Royal Leopards at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Black Swallows vs Royal Leopards

Royal Leopards beat Black Swallows 4-2 in Premier League on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Killarney Sports Field in Piggs Peak.