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Black Swallows vs Mhlume Peacemakers — Premier League 2020

Black Swallows
Black Swallows
FT
2 – 0
Mhlume Peacemakers
Mhlume Peacemakers
4/11/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Killarney Sports Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Black Swallows54%
×Draw22%
Mhlume Peacemakers24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Swallows
1.97
Mhlume Peacemakers
1.23

Black Swallows creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Black Swallows
1.33
Mhlume Peacemakers
0.53

allows per match

Black Swallows
1.93
Mhlume Peacemakers
2.60

finishing

Black Swallows+0.00on par
Mhlume Peacemakers+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Swallows ↓

Mhlume Peacemakers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Black Swallows or draw
76%
Black Swallows or Mhlume Peacemakers
78%
Draw or Mhlume Peacemakers
46%

Winning margin

Black Swallows wins by 2+
32%
Mhlume Peacemakers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Black Swallows 1+ goals
86%
Black Swallows 2+ goals
58%
Black Swallows 3+ goals
31%
Mhlume Peacemakers 1+ goals
71%
Mhlume Peacemakers 2+ goals
35%
Mhlume Peacemakers 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Black Swallows (draw refunded)
70%
Mhlume Peacemakers (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Swallows at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Mhlume Peacemakers away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Swallows attack 1.33 + Mhlume Peacemakers defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.97

Mhlume Peacemakers attack 0.53 + Black Swallows defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Black Swallows scores more
54%
level
22%
Mhlume Peacemakers scores more
24%

Black Swallows at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Black Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Black Swallows vs Mhlume Peacemakers

Black Swallows beat Mhlume Peacemakers 2-0 in Premier League on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Killarney Sports Field in Piggs Peak.