Black Swallows 0–3 Manzini Wanderers

Black Swallows

FT

0 – 3

Manzini Wanderers

6/12/2021

Premier League · Round 15Killarney Sports Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Black Swallows37%

×Draw25%

Manzini Wanderers38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Black SwallowsExpected goals in this matchManzini Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.46

Black Swallows

1.43

Manzini Wanderers

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 69 away

1.33

creates per match

0.99

1.93

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Black Swallows

1.33

Manzini Wanderers

0.99

allows per match

Black Swallows

1.93

Manzini Wanderers

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Black Swallows+0.00on par

Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Swallows ↓

Manzini Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Black Swallows or draw

62%

Black Swallows or Manzini Wanderers

75%

Draw or Manzini Wanderers

63%

Winning margin

Black Swallows wins by 2+

17%

Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Black Swallows 1+ goals

76%

Black Swallows 2+ goals

42%

Black Swallows 3+ goals

17%

Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals

77%

Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals

43%

Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Black Swallows (draw refunded)

49%

Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Swallows at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Manzini Wanderers away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.52 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Swallows attack 1.33 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Manzini Wanderers attack 0.99 + Black Swallows defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Black Swallows scores more

37%

level

25%

Manzini Wanderers scores more

38%

Manzini Wanderers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Manzini Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff