Black Swallows 3–1 Manzini Sea Birds

Black Swallows

FT

3 – 1

Manzini Sea Birds

6/5/2021

Premier League · Round 14Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Black Swallows35%

×Draw25%

Manzini Sea Birds40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Black SwallowsExpected goals in this matchManzini Sea Birds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.53

Black Swallows

1.42

Manzini Sea Birds

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 85 away

1.33

creates per match

1.14

1.93

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Black Swallows

1.33

Manzini Sea Birds

1.14

allows per match

Black Swallows

1.93

Manzini Sea Birds

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Black Swallows+0.00on par

Manzini Sea Birds+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Swallows ↓

Manzini Sea Birds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Black Swallows or draw

60%

Black Swallows or Manzini Sea Birds

75%

Draw or Manzini Sea Birds

65%

Winning margin

Black Swallows wins by 2+

16%

Manzini Sea Birds wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Black Swallows 1+ goals

76%

Black Swallows 2+ goals

41%

Black Swallows 3+ goals

17%

Manzini Sea Birds 1+ goals

78%

Manzini Sea Birds 2+ goals

45%

Manzini Sea Birds 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Black Swallows (draw refunded)

47%

Manzini Sea Birds (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Swallows at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Manzini Sea Birds away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Swallows attack 1.33 + Manzini Sea Birds defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

Manzini Sea Birds attack 1.14 + Black Swallows defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Black Swallows scores more

35%

level

25%

Manzini Sea Birds scores more

40%

Manzini Sea Birds at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manzini Sea Birds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff