Black Stars 1–1 USC Kita: Result & Stats

Black Stars

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

USC Kita

6/25/2023

Première Division · Round 27Complexe Sportif Karounga Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Black Stars36%

×Draw31%

USC Kita33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Black StarsExpected goals in this matchUSC Kita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.95

Black Stars

1.02

USC Kita

0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 66 away

1.00

creates per match

0.76

1.14

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Black Stars

1.00

USC Kita

0.76

allows per match

Black Stars

1.14

USC Kita

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Black Stars+0.00on par

USC Kita+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Stars ↓

USC Kita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Black Stars or draw

67%

Black Stars or USC Kita

69%

Draw or USC Kita

64%

Winning margin

Black Stars wins by 2+

14%

USC Kita wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Black Stars 1+ goals

64%

Black Stars 2+ goals

27%

Black Stars 3+ goals

8%

USC Kita 1+ goals

61%

USC Kita 2+ goals

25%

USC Kita 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Black Stars (draw refunded)

53%

USC Kita (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Stars at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

USC Kita away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Stars attack 1.00 + USC Kita defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

USC Kita attack 0.76 + Black Stars defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Black Stars scores more

36%

level

31%

USC Kita scores more

33%

Black Stars at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff