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Black Stars vs US Bougouba — Première Division 2019

Black Stars
Black Stars
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
US Bougouba
US Bougouba
B. Diakite 40'
A. Sidibe 77'
O. Cheick 53'
C. Keita 10'
1/14/2024Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 13Terrain ASB

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Black Stars36%
×Draw29%
US Bougouba34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Stars
1.10
US Bougouba
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 57 away

creates per match

Black Stars
1.00
US Bougouba
0.98

allows per match

Black Stars
1.14
US Bougouba
1.21

finishing

Black Stars+0.00on par
US Bougouba+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Stars ↓

US Bougouba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Black Stars or draw
66%
Black Stars or US Bougouba
71%
Draw or US Bougouba
64%

Winning margin

Black Stars wins by 2+
15%
US Bougouba wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Black Stars 1+ goals
67%
Black Stars 2+ goals
30%
Black Stars 3+ goals
10%
US Bougouba 1+ goals
65%
US Bougouba 2+ goals
29%
US Bougouba 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Black Stars (draw refunded)
51%
US Bougouba (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Stars at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

US Bougouba away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Stars attack 1.00 + US Bougouba defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

US Bougouba attack 0.98 + Black Stars defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Black Stars scores more
36%
level
29%
US Bougouba scores more
34%

Black Stars at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
C. Keita
40'
B. Diakite
53'
O. Cheick
73'
77'
A. Sidibe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Black Stars 1–3 US Bougouba

US Bougouba beat Black Stars 3-1 in Première Division on January 14, 2024.

Goals: C. Keita (10'), B. Diakite (40'), O. Cheick (53'), A. Sidibe (77').

The match was played at Terrain ASB in Bamako.