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Black Stars vs Rotkreuz — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Black Stars
Black Stars
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Rotkreuz
Rotkreuz
5/25/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Sportplatz Buschweilerhof

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Black Stars52%
×Draw22%
Rotkreuz26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Stars
1.96
Rotkreuz
1.32

Black Stars creates 48% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Black Stars
2.15
Rotkreuz
1.22

allows per match

Black Stars
1.43
Rotkreuz
1.78

finishing

Black Stars+0.00on par
Rotkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Stars ↓

Rotkreuz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Black Stars or draw
74%
Black Stars or Rotkreuz
78%
Draw or Rotkreuz
48%

Winning margin

Black Stars wins by 2+
30%
Rotkreuz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Black Stars 1+ goals
86%
Black Stars 2+ goals
58%
Black Stars 3+ goals
31%
Rotkreuz 1+ goals
73%
Rotkreuz 2+ goals
38%
Rotkreuz 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Black Stars (draw refunded)
67%
Rotkreuz (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Stars at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.43 · 60 matches

Rotkreuz away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Stars attack 2.15 + Rotkreuz defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.96

Rotkreuz attack 1.22 + Black Stars defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Black Stars scores more
52%
level
22%
Rotkreuz scores more
26%

Black Stars at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Black Stars 2–2 Rotkreuz

Black Stars and Rotkreuz drew 2-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Buschweilerhof in Basel.